Bowl scene: MSU win = playoff; MSU loss = Peach or Fiesta

EAST LANSING – Michigan State and its fans are hoping to be in Miami or Dallas in late December, but Atlanta and Glendale, Ariz., are the most likely consolation trips.

And Pasadena, Calif., for a second Rose Bowl in three years appears unlikely. That's the situation as Big Ten East champ MSU (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten) prepares to take on West champ Iowa (12-0, 8-0) in Saturday's Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (8:17 p.m., Fox). MSU opened as a 4 ½-point favorite, according to VegasInsider.com.

Tickets to Big 10 championship game: $150 and up

The winner appears to be a lock to be one of the four teams selected for the second year of the College Football Playoff. Iowa was No. 4 and MSU No. 5 in the latest CFP rankings, with new ones coming out Tuesday and final rankings and bowl pairings coming out Sunday (12:30 p.m., ESPN).

The semifinals are Dec. 31 at the Orange Bowl in Miami and the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas. The national championship game is Jan. 11 in Glendale, Ariz.

Big 12 champ Oklahoma also appears to be in for sure, and the same is true of Alabama and Clemson if they can win their league title games against Florida and North Carolina, respectively.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is lurking if Alabama or Clemson slips. And Ohio State is likely to be invited to the Rose Bowl if it doesn't get into the playoff and if MSU loses to Iowa.

The Rose Bowl has its choice of Big Ten teams if the Big Ten champ makes the playoff. But Scott Jenkins, chairman of the Rose Bowl Management Committee, told the Des Moines Register recently that there's a "strong presumption" the bowl will stick with the rankings and go with the next-highest-ranked Big Ten team.

MSU likely would drop behind Ohio State in the rankings if it loses Saturday, even though it won 17-14 at Ohio State on Nov. 21. MSU also would stay high enough in the rankings to be assured a spot in one of the other "New Year's Six" bowls, the four CFP bowls not involved in the semifinals.

With the Rose and Sugar (Big 12 vs. SEC) out, that would leave the Peach, Dec. 31 in Atlanta; or the Fiesta, Jan. 1 in Glendale, Ariz.