Our game-by-game MSU football predictions
GRAHAM COUCH
RECORD: 11-1
GAME 1: FRIDAY AT WESTERN MICHIGAN, 7 P.M., ESPNU
MSU 51, WESTERN MICHIGAN 24
The resurgent Broncos are a nice story with an appealing young coach, and they're playing this one at home in the friendly confines of Waldo Stadium. But there is a formula to an upset like this. This ain't it. Too much offense from MSU, too much difference at the line of scrimmage.
GAME 2: SEPT. 12 VS. OREGON, 8 P.M., ABC
MSU 37, OREGON 27
The Spartans were eventually the better football team a year ago, just not in the second half of Week 2 in Eugene, Ore. MSU has more of its team back, most notably its quarterback. The Ducks again test the Spartans' defensive organization in the back end and their ability to tackle in space — easier tests with Marcus Mariota playing in the NFL.
GAME 3: SEPT. 19 VS. AIR FORCE, NOON, ESPN OR ESPN2
MSU 40, AIR FORCE 24
Had the Spartans played in the Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech last season — as expected — they'd have seen the triple-option offense in real time. Air Force has a slew of veteran offensive weapons, though a defense that's far less frustrating.
GAME 4: SEPT. 26 VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TIME AND TV TBA
MSU 49, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 13
Lansing Catholic grad Cooper Rush is under center for CMU and former MSU offensive coordinator (and 2002 interim head coach) Morris Watts is calling the plays for the now Dan Enos-less Chippewas. Rush doesn't have enough dynamic talent around him to keep this competitive and, after early reality-check losses to Oklahoma State and Syracuse, CMU doesn't arrive with any false enthusiasm.
GAME 5: OCT. 3 VS. PURDUE, NOON, TV TBA
MSU 38, PURDUE 23
The improved and battled-tested Boilermakers roll into East Lansing having played Marshall, Virginia Tech and MAC-favorite Bowling Green. Purdue has made trouble for MSU each of the last two seasons. The halftime entertainment: A tag-team wrestling match between Tom Izzo and Branden Dawson (back for homecoming, of course), and Matt Painter and Caleb Swanigan.
GAME 6: OCT. 10 AT RUTGERS, 8 P.M., BIG TEN NETWORK
MSU 44, RUTGERS 13
Connor Cook honors the spirit of Damon Dowdell with a pick-six thrown to a Rutgers defensive lineman in MSU's first trip to Piscataway since 2004. From there, however, the Scarlett Knights don't have enough high-end talent at receiver or experience at quarterback to keep pace.
GAME 7: OCT. 17 AT MICHIGAN, TIME AND TV TBA
MSU 30, MICHIGAN 17
MSU's entire coaching staff wears khakis, in accordance with the new city-wide dress code in Ann Arbor. The 5-1 Wolverines haven't lost since their opener at Utah, leaning on a talented defense that's playing with swagger. With MSU trailing at the half, a U-M fan yells "Hey Mike D'Antoni: Little brother again!" Mark Dantonio tells his team it came from U-M quarterback Jake Rudock. Chip on shoulder preserved.
GAME 8: OCT. 24 VS. INDIANA, TIME AND TV TBA
MSU 42, INDIANA 13
With Indiana running back Tevin Coleman in the NFL, MSU's coaches are no longer annually reminded that they passed on Coleman as a recruit. That calming effect, coupled with Indiana's lack of game-changing athletes, makes the Hoosiers' uptempo offense seem slightly less rapid.
GAME 9: NOV. 7 AT NEBRASKA, 7 OR 8 P.M., TV TBA
MSU 30, NEBRASKA 28
One MSU win in Lincoln, Neb., two years ago and suddenly this game is being overlooked. Memorial Stadium at night? There aren't many teams in the country that can beat a good Huskers team at home in this setting. MSU is one of the few that can.
GAME 10: NOV. 14 VS. MARYLAND, TIME AND TV TBA
MSU 33, MARYLAND 14
MSU's maturity is challenged in facing the Terrapins in Spartan Stadium the week between games against Nebraska and Ohio State. Maryland has good team speed and enough playmakers to cause problems for a arrogant opponent. The Spartans were mature enough to handle Maryland after a deflating Ohio State defeat last year. They're fine this time, too.
GAME 11: NOV. 21 AT OHIO STATE, TIME AND TV TBA
OHIO STATE 40, MSU 31
It's not that MSU can't beat Ohio State in Columbus. But you'd have to be a fool or a fan to predict it in August based on the information at hand. The Buckeyes overwhelmed the Spartans in the second half last year in East Lansing. They were the more talented team in the Big Ten championship game in 2013, too — thwarted in large part by the incredible gumption of a special MSU defense.
GAME 12: NOV. 28 VS. PENN STATE, TIME AND TV TBA
MSU 28, PENN STATE 17
The Spartans need to beat the tar out of the Nittany Lions and perhaps also get help from elsewhere to grab a spot in the college football playoff. In a frozen Spartan Stadium, with the students gone for Thanksgiving, MSU pulls away. But is it enough?
JOE REXRODE
RECORD: 11-1
MSU 41, WESTERN MICHIGAN 20
Opening in a road-ish environment against a tough-ish opponent will leave a few marks on the Spartans — their retooled secondary doesn't have the luxury of a warmup game. This qualifies as one for their offense, though. Connor Cook and Co. find the end zone often in Kalamazoo.
MSU 38, OREGON 31
New quarterback Vernon Adams may not be Marcus Mariota, but he's smaller, faster and perhaps harder to corral. And Oregon has the same receivers who torched the Spartans last season. This prime-time showcase with playoff implications must be, and is, won by an MSU offense that dominates up front.
MSU 45, AIR FORCE 17
Cue Admiral Ackbar from Star Wars: "It's a trap!" There are much better ways to follow up a monstrous game against Oregon than trying to figure out Air Force's triple option. The Spartans eventually adjust, though, and the MSU offense — sensing a trend here? — controls the action from the start.
MSU 48, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10
Backup quarterbacks Tyler O'Connor and Damion Terry get plenty of work in the biggest laugher on the MSU schedule, all four running backs have had some success at this point and DeAnthony Arnett is out there making plays. The Big Ten is about to begin and the rotation is about to tighten.
MSU 30, PURDUE 16
Darrell Hazell has Mark Dantonio's number, which is to say, he has managed to stay close in two meetings despite a large disparity in talent between the teams. This one's more of a grinder than many expect as well, though a rumbling fourth-quarter from LJ Scott gives MSU some cushion.
MSU 31, RUTGERS 20
It's a week before Michigan, it's a night crowd in Piscataway, N.J., and it's an opponent with fresh memories of humiliation. The Scarlet Knights acquit themselves respectably after last season's 45-3 drubbing in East Lansing, but can't overcome the difference up front, on both sides of the ball.
MSU 24, MICHIGAN 16
On paper, this is a mismatch. But that was the case in 1993, 1995, 2001, etc., when lesser MSU teams pulled off upsets in this rivalry. Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines come to play and defend the Spartans better than anyone else on MSU's schedule, but a Montae Nicholson pick for a touchdown seals it.
MSU 36, INDIANA 21
Nate Sudfeld and the Hoosiers can hit big plays and score on anyone. And Indiana is creeping toward the fringe of the outskirts of respectability on defense. That's not enough to put together enough stops of the Spartans, who get two touchdown catches from Indiana native Josiah Price.
MSU 30, NEBRASKA 23
The off week comes at a good time for the Spartans, who need some rest and time to prepare for Nebraska junior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. — mistake-prone vs. MSU the past two seasons, but much improved under coach Mike Riley. Cook narrowly outduels him in a prime-time affair.
MSU 33, MARYLAND 10
Looking ahead to Ohio State? If so, the Terps can't tell. They are mauled by MSU's multi-back rushing attack and can't get much going against a jelling Spartans defense. Now MSU can finally turn full attention to the program's biggest regular-season game in 49 years.
OHIO STATE 38, MSU 31
It’s not technically a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game, but pending losses for TCU (to Oklahoma) and Baylor (to TCU) will make it look that way in retrospect. It’s a shootout despite frigid conditions. And it’s a late Braxton Miller catch-and-run for a score that makes the difference.
MSU 31, PENN STATE 13
Christian Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions are overwhelmed on MSU's senior day. Ohio State will enter the playoff at 13-0. Alabama, with a lone loss at Georgia, wins the SEC and is in. One-loss TCU is in with a win over Baylor. MSU gets the nod over Pac-12 champ Oregon and is the 3 seed, taking on 2 seed Alabama in the Orange Bowl.
CHRIS SOLARI
RECORD: 11-1
MSU 41, WESTERN MICHIGAN 20
Under the Friday night lights at wild Waldo Stadium, the Spartans find the end zone early and often. Connor Cook spreads the ball around to a number of receivers and becomes the school leader in career passing yards before taking a seat in the third quarter. A number of running backs get carries, and MSU produces a business-as-usual effort, getting enough stops in the second half against a talented Broncos offense.
MSU 31, OREGON 24
This time, Cook is the Heisman Trophy candidate (like Oregon's Marcus Mariota a year earlier). This time, it's in East Lansing. And this time, MSU's defense makes the pivotal stops to drown the Ducks and move into the top 3 in the AP poll. It's the type of big game on a national stage that QB Cook needs to prove he's capable of leading the Spartans to their ultimate goal of a national title.
MSU 48, AIR FORCE 13
Don't be fooled — the Falcons, despite being a service academy program, are coming off a 10-win season and a dangerous triple-option offense that MSU has yet to face in Mark Dantonio's tenure. However, the Spartans' secret weapon is defensive line coach Ron Burton, whose previous job was at Air Force. Offensively, Cook and Co. shred the Falcons' flightless defense for an easy win.
MSU 37, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10
An upset still wouldn't be CMU's biggest victory of the year. That goes to new coach John Bonamego in his fight with cancer. Rightfully so. But that's off the field. The homecoming for Cooper Rush gets spoiled by an MSU defense still angry it gave up more than 200 yards the previous week. Damion Terry and Tyler O'Connor get plenty of work for the third time this season, with Terry edging ahead in the starting battle for 2016.
MSU 41, PURDUE 9
Poor Purdue. It struggles to move the ball on the ground last year, and it can't stop anyone on defense. This will be the chance for senior MSU receivers DeAnthony Arnett and Aaron Burbridge to shine. The Boilermakers surprisingly spread the Spartans out last year and stayed close, but this year's MSU team is much more ready and better equipped to play sideline to sideline in its Big Ten opener.
MSU 28, RUTGERS 17
It's Shilique Calhoun's New Jersey homecoming and perhaps the biggest game in Piscataway. Kyle Flood's team pulled off the upset a year ago against Michigan, but the Spartans are too strong in the trenches. Calhoun has a big game chasing down new Scarlet Knights QB Hayden Rettig, then backup Chris Laviano, then catches a touchdown pass out of the tight end spot on offense.
MSU 33, MICHIGAN 13
The rivalry game and hostile crowd in Ann Arbor, however, drives MSU's veteran offensive linemen into a frenzy. The pair of Jacks — Conklin and Allen — provide holes so wide that even Kodi Kieler could carry the ball. But freshman LJ Scott's speed is entirely too much for the Wolverines in his breakout performance, with Madre London also eclipsing the 100-yard plateau. Jim Harbaugh opts to avoid Mark Dantonio's postgame handshake, providing reporters with another year worth of stories.
MSU 45, INDIANA 13
What better way to prevent a letdown than by hosting the downtrodden Hoosiers? The Spartans improve to 8-0 with another dominating offensive performance, with RJ Shelton doing a little of everything — catching a TD pass from Cook at receiver, scoring on a reverse, lining up in the backfield and running for a 75-yarder and throwing in a kickoff return for good measure.
MSU 27, NEBRASKA 21
After a week off to heal, it's off to the kindness of Lincoln and the hard-nosed Huskers, who have waited for their shot at revenge since time expired on their potential comeback at Spartan Stadium a year ago. MSU grinds out the victory thanks to its line and developing Scott-London tandem milking the clock to prevent another late rally before midnight.
MSU 40, MARYLAND 3
There won't be any looking ahead here, other than Mark Dantonio and his staff removing their starters as soon as possible. The Spartans make the Terps' first visit to East Lansing a forgettable one, with Cook getting a quick hook after four first-half TD passes. Mike Tressel's fire-and-brimstone impersonation of Pat Narduzzi on the sideline in the fourth quarter is not enough to keep Maryland from ending the shutout with a 48-yard field goal off the toe of reigning Lou Groza Award winner Brad Craddock in the waning minutes.
OHIO STATE 31, MSU 30
It's 1966 all over again, only on the road. Plenty remains at stake, as the Buckeyes learned a year ago, with the new College Football Playoff. Both teams enter with unblemished records, and Cook appears to have the by-now-No.2-ranked Spartans on the verge of upsetting No. 1 OSU with a TD pass to Arnett with 55 seconds left. But JT Barrett pulls off the miracle, with a deep pass to a streaking Braxton Miller down the sidelines to stun MSU. For the moment.
MSU 42, PENN STATE 20
Angry and ornery, it's a senior day to remember. Cook passes for 405 yards, topping Bill Burke's 16-year-old school record and punching his Heisman finalist ticket to New York. Calhoun leads the defense to seven sacks of PSU QB Christian Hackenberg. And the 11-1 Spartans must wait to learn their College Football Playoff fate until all of the conference championship games are complete.